Drafting a franchise quarterback is the hardest challenge in the NFL. Some teams seem to have a knack for it, while others struggle for decades to find a long-term starter. To quantify draft success, I analyzed Pro Football Reference data from 1970 to 2024, calculating the Weighted Approximate Value per Year (wAV/Yr) for every drafted quarterback.

The scatter plot below compares the career production of quarterbacks drafted by the New York Jets against the rest of the league, charted by their overall draft pick.

While late-round gems certainly exist, the most productive quarterbacks are overwhelmingly drafted in the first round. However, not all first-round picks are created equal. When we filter the data to look strictly at first-round quarterbacks, the disparity in hit rates becomes even more apparent.

As the visualizations show, the New York Jets have had mixed results when swinging big in the first round, often missing the mark compared to the league’s top-tier draft selections. Finding a true franchise cornerstone requires both high draft capital and a bit of luck.

Data sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.