In the NFL, success is fleeting. Dynasties rise and fall, rebuilds succeed and fail, and every season brings new contenders. But how can we visualize this constant churn? What if we could see how teams move through the competitive landscape over time—from rebuilding to contending, from elite to struggling, and back again?

To visualize this cycle, I’ve mapped each team’s position along two dimensions: their present performance (how good they are right now) versus their future outlook (how good they’re expected to be over the next few seasons). Teams in the top-right quadrant are both good now and have a bright future—these are the true contenders. Teams in the bottom-left are struggling now with little hope ahead—these are the rebuilders. The other quadrants represent teams in transition: good now but declining (top-left), or struggling now but building toward something better (bottom-right).

The Data

The present value I used for each season is ESPN’s end-of-season Football Power Index (FPI), which ESPN describes as the “expected point margin vs an average opponent on a neutral field.” These numbers for the past 10 years can be found here.

The future value is derived from ESPN’s future power rating from the following offseason, which looks to estimate how a team will perform over the next 3 seasons. The 2025 numbers and the methodology for this can be found here.

By pairing these two metrics, we can see not just where teams are, but where they’re heading—and how that trajectory has changed over the past decade.

2024 Snapshot

Let’s start with a snapshot of where teams stood at the end of the 2024 season. Each team’s logo is positioned based on their present performance (y-axis) and future outlook (x-axis).

The Cycle in Motion

A single snapshot tells part of the story, but the real magic happens when we watch teams move through this space over time. The animation below shows how NFL teams have transitioned between rebuilding and contending from 2015 through 2024. Watch as teams move across the plot—some making steady climbs toward contention, others falling back, and a few maintaining elite status year after year.

This project was inspired by The Athletic’s “NHL Contention Cycle.”

All team logos were sourced from sportslogos.net.